Explanation of Graphs

The graphs on the accompanying pages give a little insight as to what possible makeup the senate may have on a state by state basis. They're calculated using a beta-distributed model; but how do the votes add up?

I will attempt to explain the nuance, using current counts in the senate, of how particular parties may end up winning or losing a senate seat, based on the shifting of a few hundred (to at most a couple of thousand) votes from one party to another.

Soon you'll see how crazy and, one might argue, unfair this counting system really is and how many people failed to get the representation they voted for and deserved.

Below is some break-point analysis of the senate races for each state. This kind of analysis tries to work out the least number of targeted votes that would help a candidate get elected (or correspondingly get eliminated).

Below I have given a Realistic and Total figures for the relevant gaps. The Total figure is an aggregate of all of the votes for all of the feeder groups. The Realistic figure has the following assumptions: Complete dispersion of the below-the-lines and only ticket votes from all of the feeder groups, no unapportioned. The assumption is that all unapportioned votes are below-the-line votes which are split roughly the same way as the current makeup of below-the-lines.

For example, with 400 votes for Candidate 1 in the main group, and 100 votes for Others, and 200 unapportioned. I assume that the total votes for Candidate 1 are 400 + 200*400/(400+100) = 560.

There are three important break-points in the NSW exclusion counts that could lead to different parties being elected. The first will lead to The Australian Greens being elected over the 3rd LNP candidate. This occurs when the Stable Population Party outpolls Australia First Party. The Australian Democrats, or The Shooters and Fishers can also get the final senate spot over the LNP. This is achieved when the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party (AMEP) is knocked out by Bullet Train (if they outpoll Family First) or Family First directly. Then The Australian Democrats get the final Seat unless the Shooters can avoid exclusion against the LNP (and will then win the seat).

GRN > LNP

Cause: Stable Population > Australia First

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Australia First	3453	60	5	123
Australian Voice	2433	32	10	85

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Stable Population	2657	364	15	403
Senator Online	1961	316	16	132

	Total	Realistic
Australia First	6201	6060
Stable Population	5864	5369
Gap	+337	+691

The gap, although small, is a very large portion of the votes for any of the four parties mentioned above. For this reason, this gap is most likely not going to be breached with counting of below the line votes. Senator Online BTL votes in Tasmania (being the only distribution available right now), moved reasonably strongly (10%) towards Stable Population. The biggest non-major move. Even with this move, the realistic gap is still over 600.

DEM or Shooters & Fishers > LNP

Cause: Bullet Train > Family First

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Bullet Train	8354	443	36	238
Building Australia	2194	43	3	56
Senator Online	1961	316	16	132
Group AG	2341	29	2	159

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Family First	15715	451	35	307

	Total	Realistic
Family First	16508	16451
Bullet Train	16323	15513
Gap	+185	+938

DEM or Shooters & Fishers > LNP

Cause: Family First > AMEP

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
AMEP	16265	324	15	491

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Family First	15715	451	35	307

	Total	Realistic
AMEP	17095	17058
Family First	16508	16451
Gap	+587	+607

As before, the gaps seem small, but the realistic gaps are much larger. Interestingly AMEP and Family First receive no direct preferences before their gap, and so below the line votes that end up directed towards them may end up changing the election outcome. However, I would suspect the gap would increase rather than decrease.

DEM > Shooters & Fishers > LNP

Cause: LNP > Shooters & Fishers

Shooters & Fishers > DEM > LNP

Cause: Shooters & Fishers > LNP

At this point the analysis becomes very tough, as far more below the line votes need to be analysed. Suffice to say the LNP cannot win a seat if the above break-points are overcome.

The AMEP is in a very strong position here. If they're not knocked out early, they will win the final seat in Victoria. The only time they are close to being knocked out is against the Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party.

LNP > AMEP

Cause: Fishing & Lifestyle > AMEP

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
AMEP	16269	431	29	145
Bank Reform Party	1696	77	8	19

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Fishing & Lifestyle	15543	241	20	100

	Total	Realistic
AMEP	18674	18532
Fishing & Lifestyle	15904	15876
Gap	+2770	+2656

The gap is much larger than equivalent ones in NSW. I think it's safe to say the AMEP will win the final seat.

The only threat to the final LNP candidate is the Australian Independents. If they can get enough votes to avoid early elimination, then they will take the final seat (in a similar manner to the AMEP in Victoria. The Australian Independents need only avoid elimination from the Animal Justice Party and they will take a seat away from the LNP.

Australian Independents > LNP

Cause: Australian Independents > Animal Justice Party

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Australian Independents	7689	423	39	2583
Stable Population	746	148	9	426
Stop CSG	1211	197	24	654
Australia First	4500	78	8	1280

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Animal Justice Party	18890	943	56	4503

	Total	Realistic
Animal Justice Party	24392	24084
Australian Independents	20015	16934
Gap	+4377	+7150

This is an incredibly large gap, made even larger by the lack of knowledge about the unapportioned votes for each of the parties feeding the Australian Independents. I would say that this is the most insurmountable gap.

Western Australia is by far the most interesting, and most hotly contested, Senate Race. There are 5 different realistic outcomes, and I will go through them in detail. The first four senate spots will be filled with 3 LNP and 1 ALP. The outcome of the final two spots is in doubt. Specifically there is one spot for the ALP and the Australian Greens as well as one spot for one of the LDP, PUP or the Sports Party.

Sports + GRN / Sports + ALP

The first set of outcomes involve the Sports Party being elected. This involves the Sports Party avoiding elimination at four key stages. If they don't get eliminated by the No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics (NCTCS) or Rise Up Australia, then they can be eliminated if the Shooters & Fishers beat the Australian Christians, but that battle doesn't matter if the Animal Justice party outpolls HEMP.

If the Sports Party is not knocked out, then the Australian Greens are likely to be elected as well. However, there is a slim chance they will be knocked out by the ALP. This occurs only if the Sports Party breaks quota with votes gained when (and not after) the Liberal Democrats are excluded. This is a classic example of vote segmentation.

PUP + ALP / PUP + GRN

If the Sports Party is excluded, the most likely outcome is the Palmer United Party (PUP) and the ALP getting the final two seats. However, the Australian Greens have a small chance at getting the final seat off the ALP. This comes down to below the line preferences, and no strange exclusions.

LDP + ALP

There is one final break-point, and that's when the LDP and PUP are in last and second last place. If the LDP can eliminate PUP, then the LDP will take the final seat. And since the LDP will harvest Australian Green favouring preferences from the other eliminated parties, the ALP will be elected as well.

Below I will cover the four close contests that may bring the Sports Party to elimination, and I will look at the LDP and PUP battle in detail as well.

Sports Party Eliminated

Cause: NCTCS > Sports Party

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Sports Party	2786	89	19	67

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
No Carbon Tax	1376	61	5	35
Australian Voice	1043	40	8	55

	Total	Realistic
Sports Party	2961	2930
No Carbon Tax	2623	2512
Gap	+338	+418

Sports Party Eliminated

Cause: Rise Up > Sports Party

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Sports Party	2786	89	19	67
Australian Voice	1043	40	8	55

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Rise Up	3316	284	18	139

	Total	Realistic
Sports Party	4107	3973
Rise Up	3757	3731
Gap	+350	+242

Sports Party Eliminated

Cause: Shooters & Fishers > Australian Christians

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Shooters & Fishers	12174	776	64	328
Australian Independents	3591	199	62	116
Fishing & Lifestyle	5324	163	14	142

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Australian Christians	19257	1295	143	458
No Carbon Tax	1376	61	5	35

	Total	Realistic
Australian Christians	22630	22340
Shooters & Fishers	22953	22168
Gap	-323	+172

Sports Party (all but) Guaranteed Election

Cause: Animal Justice Party > HEMP

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
HEMP	12353	872	78	303

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Animal Justice Party	8722	499	42	348
Australian Democrats	3164	383	44	140

	Total	Realistic
HEMP	13606	13503
Animal Justice Party	13342	12706
Gap	+264	+797

LDP > PUP & ALP > GRN

Cause: LDP > PUP, Sports Eliminated

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Palmer United	61128	1756	318	1344
Katter	3386	282	25	100
Sports Party	2786	86	19	67
Stable Population	1036	213	19	70

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Liberal Democrats	43261	390	56	757
Stop The Greens	2049	101	11	43
Smokers Rights	7879	430	24	188
Australian Democrats	3164	383	44	140
HEMP	12353	872	78	303

	Total	Realistic
Palmer United	72635	71230
Liberal Democrats	72526	69758
Gap	+109	+1472

This is ridiculously close, and above the line analysis is very weak at determining the outcome. It will come down to hundreds of votes below the line, and we will not be able to establish the outcome before the AEC calculates all of the below the line votes.

Pre-Election analysis showed that the No Carbon Tax Climate Skeptics (NCTCS) were strong contenders here if they polled as well as they did in 2010. However, Family First polled very well and has been able to stay ahead of them. For the NCTCS to get a seat they need the LDP to knock out Family First. As this is a very late-round elimination, below the lines will become very prevalent in the count, so this is a genuine possibility.

NCTCS > FF

Cause: Liberal Democrats > Family First

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Liberal Democrats	36046	354	27	196
Smokers Rights	1820	51	6	14
Group L	495	46	10	32

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Family First	35929	2378	61	44
Australian Independents	1923	116	11	22
Stable Population	490	225	13	15

	Total	Realistic
Family First	41227	40763
Liberal Democrats	39097	38897
Gap	+2130	+1866

I will do some further analysis to see if the NCTCS can get eliminated before this point. However, my gut feeling is that even with significant leakage, their 0.11% of the primary vote is enough to harvest all the preferences that they will need.

NCTCS Composition

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
No Carbon Tax	1007	80	3	18
Country Alliance	303	14	14	2
Building Australia	832	21	1	7
Rise Up	1067	137	7	28
Katter	1443	159	10	28
One Nation	2726	181	9	43
Fishing & Lifestyle	3213	87	10	28
Australian Christians	2940	467	19	78
Shooters & Fishers	5558	425	43	107
AMEP	6392	298	39	42
HEMP	5495	384	19	51
Animal Justice	5752	457	105	65
DLP	9874	168	21	55
Sex Party	9403	776	55	70

	Total	Realistic
No Carbon Tax	60287	56095

There are four parties vying for the final spot in Tasmania. They are Family First, the Australian Sex Party, the Palmer United Party and the third LNP candidate.

Family First will be elected if they can avoid elimination to the Sex Party. The Sex Party will get elected if they can avoid elimination against the ALP's third candidate. If these two parties are eliminated, then if the LDP knocks PUP out, the LNP gets the final seat. If PUP outpolls the LDP then PUP gets the final seat.

For the sake of analysis, I have assumed that the ALP overflow (in total number of votes) is 14026 votes. This is judged from about a 90% dispersion, and full 4th -> 3rd candidate flow.

Family First

Cause: FF > SEX

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Family First	3659	599	144	0
No Carbon Tax	185	19	7	0
Australian Christians	1332	267	23	0
Australian Independents	2287	166	40	0
Senator Online	60	32	12	0
Rise Up Australia	836	138	22	0
Fishing & Lifestyle	664	58	7	0

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Sex Party	4285	547	39	0
Country Alliance	717	197	33	0
HEMP	1444	250	20	0
Stable Population	215	138	19	0
Shooters & Fishers	3241	393	62	0

	Total	Realistic
Sex Party	11600	9902
Family First	10557	9023
Gap	+1043	+879

SEX

Cause: SEX > ALP

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
ALP	14026	0	0	0

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Sex Party	4285	547	39	0
Country Alliance	717	197	33	0
HEMP	1444	250	20	0
Stable Population	215	138	19	0
Shooters & Fishers	3241	393	62	0
No Carbon Tax	185	19	7	0
Australian Independents	2287	166	40	0
Senator Online	60	32	12	0
Fishing & Lifestyle	664	58	7	0

	Total	Realistic
ALP	14026	14026
Sex Party	15137	13098
Gap	-1111	+928

If sufficient votes disperse from the Sex Party (either away from them or towards the ALP), we are now looking more like a PUP/LNP senator than a Sex Party senator. However, dispersion from the ALP 4th candidate may lead to this race being significantly closer, and more likely down to a few hundred votes.

PUP > LNP

Cause: PUP > LDP

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Palmer United	20290	1501	390	0
Senator Online	60	32	12	0
Fishing & Lifestyle	664	58	7	0
Greens Overflow (GRN)	1660	0	0	0
Greens Overflow (ALP)	3320	0	0	0

Party & Composition	Ticket Votes	BTL Votes		Unapportioned
		1st Candidate	Others
Liberal Democrats	7504	247	55	0
Greens Overflow (Pirate)	51	0	0	0
Smokers Rights	738	59	9	0
Stop The Greens	1238	131	30	0
Katter	1084	265	26	0
DLP	2393	171	32	0
Family First	3659	599	144	0
Sex Party	4285	547	39	0
HEMP	1444	250	20	0
Stable Population	215	138	19	0
Shooters & Fishers	3241	393	62	0
No Carbon Tax	185	19	7	0
Australian Independents	2287	166	40	0

	Total	Realistic
Palmer United	27994	25994
Liberal Democrats	31792	28324
Gap	-3798	-2330

At this point I cannot really decide between the Palmer United Candidate and the final LNP candidate.

The assumption for the Overflow for the Greens is flawed, because there are a huge number of uncounted below the line votes that will probably go towards the Greens before / during the overflow. Given this, this race is far closer than the numbers above give it credit for.

We will have to wait and see what happens when the AEC hits the button tomorrow!