The VEC has declared the provisional results for each of the 8 regions (these results are full counts involving below the line votes). The combined upper house is given below. The ALP will need The Greens and 2 members of the crossbench to pass legislation, while the Liberal-National Coalition will require 4 members of the crossbench, or The Greens, to block a bill's passage through the upper house.
Counting is now live for the Victorian Election, and the following links provide a breakdown for each of the eight regions in the upper house.
The two graphs below represent the current breakdown during the recheck, and the final numbers before the recheck (left and right respectively). Please note that the right hand breakdown is accurate as of 30/11/2014 at 11:59pm. After this point in time the VEC began its recheck of all of the Regions, and the votes drastically reduced in number. Apologies for any confusion here!
There are 40 members in the Upper house, with all 40 positions up for election. They are decided by proportional representation within eight different Regions in Victoria, each Region contributing 5 members for a total of 40 state-wide.
Analysis is now live for each of the eight regions. These are subject to change as I modify the polling levels for each of the parties. Current polling for PUP is sitting between 2-3%, and I have included him at 5%, so some of the minor party chances may be overstated.
The "most likely" seat estimate is below for the upper house. Note that this represents a small total probability of the final seat distribution, it is just the sum of the most likely distributions from each of the 8 Regions. I will include more detailed analysis soon. Notably ALP + GRN is 21 seats which is enough to pass and block legislation.
|Party||"Most Likely" Seats|
|Liberal / Nationals||15|
|Liberal Democratic Party||1|
|Shooters & Fishers||1|
The following table is the average number of seats a party is likely to win (given the numbers that I am using).
|Party||Average Number of Seats|
|Liberal / Nationals||15.37|
|Liberal Democratic Party||0.50|
|Shooters & Fishers||0.93|