The graphs below serve as an estimate of the possible outcomes for the upper house election in this region. These numbers are based on the 2010 results, adjusted to account for state wide swings through polling, as well as estimations of minor party performance based on the 2013 Senate Election in Victoria.

Pre-Election Breakdown and Analysis

The first graph below is a count of the current primary votes. The second graph estimates the probable number of seats a given party will win. The third graph is the most likely outcome and the fourth graph gives (horizontally) the probability of a particular upper house breakdown, for the five seats considered in this region (vertically).

Minor Party Analysis

The South-Eastern Metropolitan Region is the least likely to have an upset with a minor party taking the fifth seat. The most likely parties to get a seat are the Palmer United Party (PUP) and The LDP. However, neither pose a significant threat to the major three parties.

The first two graphs show each of the parties' (LDP and PUP respectively) chances, and none are particularly good without a large primary vote. And a large primary vote will not happen for either of these parties given the polling which is available.

The final graph is essentially the nail in the coffin for the minor parties. Even if there is a significant increase in the minor party vote in the Region, the preference deals are not tight-knit enough for a single candidate to emerge with a victory. There's too much leakage to the major parties.