The graphs below serve as an estimate of the possible outcomes for the upper house election in this region. These numbers are based on the 2010 results, adjusted to account for state wide swings through polling, as well as estimations of minor party performance based on the 2013 Senate Election in Victoria.

Pre-Election Breakdown and Analysis

The first graph below is a count of the current primary votes. The second graph estimates the probable number of seats a given party will win. The third graph is the most likely outcome and the fourth graph gives (horizontally) the probability of a particular upper house breakdown, for the five seats considered in this region (vertically).

Minor Party Analysis

Below are the probabilities of election of the LDP and the Australian Christians. Both parties need far less than a quota to have a good chance at election and taking a seat away from the major parties. The tipping point for the Australian Christians is 0.85% of the vote, while the LDP tipping point is 2.85%.

These percentages assume that every elector votes using the GVT (i.e. an above the line vote), but given the leakage from below the line votes, these primary votes may need to be slightly higher. (A good example of the effect of leakage is Palmer United beating the Australian Sex party in the Tasmanian Senate election during the Federal Election in 2013).

Looking now at the percentage vote required by the minor parties to elect at least one of the Australian Christians or the LDP, we have the following graph. In the Federal Election last year, Victorians gave 16.62% of their vote to minor parties; which corresponds to 0.997 quotas.

The tipping point for electing a minor party? About 0.997 quotas.