The graphs below serve as an estimate of the possible outcomes for the upper house election in this region. These numbers are based on the 2010 results, adjusted to account for state wide swings through polling, as well as estimations of minor party performance based on the 2013 Senate Election in Victoria.

Pre-Election Breakdown and Analysis

The first graph below is a count of the current primary votes. The second graph estimates the probable number of seats a given party will win. The third graph is the most likely outcome and the fourth graph gives (horizontally) the probability of a particular upper house breakdown, for the five seats considered in this region (vertically).

Minor Party Analysis

The Southern Metropolitan Region has a slim chance of the Australian Sex Party (ASXP) taking a seat off the LNP. Again, there is a sweet spot for the primary LNP vote which will give ASXP the best chance.

If LNP polls between 37.5% and 40.5% primary vote, then the ASXP will have the best chance of taking the third LNP seat. How likely is this to happen? The LNP polled 51% in 2010. This would be a ridiculous swing away from the LNP. However, only four (serious) minor parties were running in the last State Election. But I think this swing is an unachievable goal, and ASXP will be relying on a strong primary vote, and primary vote for minor parties, to get elected.