The graphs below serve as an estimate of the possible outcomes for the upper house election in this region. These numbers are based on the 2010 results, adjusted to account for state wide swings through polling, as well as estimations of minor party performance based on the 2013 Senate Election in Victoria.

Pre-Election Breakdown and Analysis

The first graph below is a count of the current primary votes. The second graph estimates the probable number of seats a given party will win. The third graph is the most likely outcome and the fourth graph gives (horizontally) the probability of a particular upper house breakdown, for the five seats considered in this region (vertically).

Minor Party Analysis

The Shooters and Fishers (ASP) appear to have this seat all but guaranteed. Here is the analysis of the Shooters and Fishers Primary vote against the probability of election, as well as the primary vote of the minor parties.

The plot on the left is the probability of ASP getting a seat based on their own primary vote. The tipping point here is around 0.47% of the primary vote. The ASP should poll well above this on the day, which gives them a fantastic chance of winning a seat. This is the highest probability of any minor party winning a seat in any of the Victorian regions.

The second plot shows the relative chance of ASP with respect to the total vote recieved for all minor parties. This chance maximises at around 0.9 of a quota, which is significantly less than the 0.997 quotas minor parties received last year in the federal election! (Note that a higher percentage vote for the minor parties gives the Country Alliance and the LDP a better chance of winning the seat, this is why the ASP chance of winning tapers off with increasing votes)