The graphs below serve as an estimate of the possible outcomes for the upper house election in this region. These numbers are based on the 2010 results, adjusted to account for state wide swings through polling, as well as estimations of minor party performance based on the 2013 Senate Election in Victoria.

Pre-Election Breakdown and Analysis

The first graph below is a count of the current primary votes. The second graph estimates the probable number of seats a given party will win. The third graph is the most likely outcome and the fourth graph gives (horizontally) the probability of a particular upper house breakdown, for the five seats considered in this region (vertically).

Minor Party Analysis

The Western Victoria Region has a slim chance of election of the Democratic Labour Party (DLP), the Palmer United Party (PUP) or an incredibly slim chance of electing the Australian Country Alliance (ACA). These three parties are contesting with The Greens for the fifth seat in the state.

This is an incredibly outside chance for each of these parties. PUP has a more favourable chance than either of the other two but without a strong primary vote for any of the individual parties, there's very small chance of an upset for The Greens.

The final graph below shows how weakly the minor parties have preferenced together in this Region. This seat is the most likely to have a simple outcome; a 2-2-1 split for LNP-ALP-GRN.