The graphs below serve as an estimate of the possible outcomes for the upper house election in this region. These numbers are based on the 2010 results, adjusted to account for state wide swings through polling, as well as estimations of minor party performance based on the 2013 Senate Election in Victoria.
The first graph below is a count of the current primary votes. The second graph estimates the probable number of seats a given party will win. The third graph is the most likely outcome and the fourth graph gives (horizontally) the probability of a particular upper house breakdown, for the five seats considered in this region (vertically).
The Australian Country Alliance (ACA) has the potential to take the third seat of the Liberal/National Coalition (this particular seat is being contested by the Liberals, with the Nationals in a safe second spot seat.
The tipping point for ACA is 4.15% of the vote. This is definitely achievable given the results in the area from the previous Victorian State Election, however increasing much beyond this may be a challenge. Correspondingly there's a very good chance that the LNP will be able to retain this third seat, as given in the second graph below.
ACA is highly dependent on the LNP vote in the region. If the LNP has too little overflow from 2 quotas, these votes won't be enough to get ACA over the line. Similarly, if the LNP has too few votes, then ACA won't be able to get enough votes to beat the final LNP candidate.
The sweet spot for ACA? LNP vote between 38.5% and 41.0%. This is a swing of over 7.5% from the previous election. Is this kind of swing possible? Definitely, especially given a swing to minor parties. Is it likely? It all comes down to polling day.