The graphs below serve as an estimate of the possible outcomes for the upper house election in this region. These numbers are based on the 2010 results, adjusted to account for state wide swings through polling, as well as estimations of minor party performance based on the 2013 Senate Election in Victoria.

Pre-Election Breakdown and Analysis

The first graph below is a count of the current primary votes. The second graph estimates the probable number of seats a given party will win. The third graph is the most likely outcome and the fourth graph gives (horizontally) the probability of a particular upper house breakdown, for the five seats considered in this region (vertically).

Minor Party Analysis

The Australian Sex Party (ASXP) and Family First (FFP) while appearing ideologically different to the layperson (I would highly recommend giving both parties' policies a read and comparison) are potentially fighting it out for the fifth spot (along with the ALP) in the Northern Metropolitan Region.

The tipping point for ASXP is about 2.83% of the vote, while FFP requires quite a bit more at over 4% of the primary vote. Of the two parties ASXP is vastly more likely, and this vote is very much achievable given both the Federal Senate election, as well as the previous Victorian State Election.