The graphs below serve as an estimate of the possible outcomes for the upper house election in this region. These numbers are based on the 2010 results, adjusted to account for state wide swings through polling, as well as estimations of minor party performance based on the 2013 Senate Election in Victoria.

Pre-Election Breakdown and Analysis

The first graph below is a count of the current primary votes. The second graph estimates the probable number of seats a given party will win. The third graph is the most likely outcome and the fourth graph gives (horizontally) the probability of a particular upper house breakdown, for the five seats considered in this region (vertically).

Minor Party Analysis

The Western Metropolitan Region has a slim chance of election of the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) or the Palmer United Party (PUP). Both of these parties are contesting with the ALP for the fifth seat in the state.

This is an incredibly outside chance for each of these two parties. The DLP has a more favourable chance, but without a strong primary vote the only way to get elected is for the ALP to have a small overflow from their first two quotas. This represents a vote percentage between 40.5% and 46%.

How likely is this to happen? The ALP primary vote in this region in the 2010 State Election was about 46.2%. Given the statewide swing towards the ALP and away from the LNP, this is highly unlikely unless there is also a large swing to the minor parties, or the Greens.